It is--and has been--a
tough time to look for a job in the United States (unless, of course,
you are an accounting graduate). However, there may be some hope on the
horizon for the legions of unemployed.
Business executives--while
still expressing caution--continue to raise their expectations for hiring in
the coming year. That’s according to the third quarter
AICPA Economic Outlook Survey, a survey of 1,228
CEOs, CFOs, controllers and other CPAs in U.S.
companies who hold executive and senior management accounting roles.
The CPA Outlook Index—a
comprehensive gauge of executive sentiment within the survey—remained unchanged
from last quarter at 69 points. The index is a composite of nine, equally
weighted survey measures set on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50 considered neutral
and greater numbers signifying positive sentiment.
Index components that
showed the highest quarter-to-quarter increase were employment, expansion
plans, and revenue--each up two points over the second quarter.
"To me, it
indicates that business executives are still a little wary about the US
economy's ability to jump forward, but more executives now believe there is
enough stability to start expanding and hiring again,"
Jim
Morrison, CPA, CGMA, chair of the AICPA Business & Industry Executive
Committee,
told AccountingWEB.
The U.S. Department of Labor employment report
for August showed that current hiring trends are still fairly weak, with
the DOL reporting yesterday that initial claims for state unemployment
benefits increased
15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 309,000.
However, the AICPA survey serves as a forward-looking
indicator of hiring expectations over the next 12 months. Some 15 percent of
respondents now say they have too few employees and are planning to hire in the
next 12 months, up from 12 percent last quarter and 9 percent a year ago.
Another 19 percent say they have too few employees but are reluctant to bring
on new staff.
“We’ve seen expectations on hiring and business
expansion gain steadily throughout the year,” said Arleen
R. Thomas,
CPA, CGMA, AICPA’s senior vice president of management accounting and
global markets. “Our latest survey results support that but also show some
renewed concern about prospects for the U.S. economy.”
The survey found some concern that renewed
wrangling over taxes and government spending in Congress could discourage investments
needed for growth.
“The debt ceiling, sequestration, issues around patent protection and some
international business practices all really create a certain level of
uncertainty which leads to some apprehension or some holding back of items, for
example capital spending,” Gary Lubin, CPA, CITP, told
Voice of America.
Additional noteworthy survey findings include:
- Key
Performance Indicators –
Profit and revenue expectations continue to track upwards at a modest pace.
- Hiring – Some 53 percent of business executives
say their companies have the right number of employees. The largest companies
(those with more than $1 billion in annual revenue) are more likely than other
businesses to say they have too few employees. On an industry basis, the
construction, technology, and professional, technical and scientific services
sectors are expected to see the biggest job growth.
- Health-Care
Costs – Expected cost
increases in this category rose to 6.8 percent, up slightly from the previous
quarter and the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2010.