1: Cash out (but only if you're super savvy)
First
big choice: Should you cash out, lock in gains, then wait patiently
until prices bottom to buy bargains? Sounds great. For guys like
Buffett.
For
a long time indecisive readers have been asking the obvious, like the
kids in that kindergarten: "If you're right about a crash coming, when
do I act on it?"
The
signals were so obvious. In early 2000 as the dot-com market peaked,
too many absurd 100%-plus mutual fund returns and sky-high P/E's
screaming, "Sell, Sell!" Paul Erdman, a well-respected economist
actually did dump his stocks. But few listened. Nobody
actually does!
Sadly! They only ask!!
2: Cash in (day trading, double down, shorts, puts, calls, action!)
Successful
traders are a special breed unto themselves. Fortunately, a majority of
investors figured out long ago that active trading really is a loser's
game for average investors with full-time jobs.
Why?
They tried, lost and read studies like the ones by finance professors
Terry Odean and Brad Barber and their seven-year study of 66,400 Wall
Street brokerage accounts.
Their bottom line: "The more you trade the less you earn."
Buy-and-hold investors in their research turned over their portfolios
just 2% a year. Active traders churned their portfolios an average of
258% annually, but their net returns were a third less than their
buy-and-hold competition. One-third less. And that's before deducting "opportunity costs" and the added stress many traders complain of.
3: Sit tight, do nothing and ride out the storm
Yes, do nothing: Seriously, it's not that complicated if you already have a well-diversified portfolio of stocks. Most don't.
The
experts say: "For good reasons and bad, I'd hold tight. The good
include my faith in capitalism and its ability to weather a storm, even
one of biblical proportions. The bad reason is, I have no faith in my
ability to time this sort of thing. Even if I got out in time, I
probably wouldn't be able to correctly time getting back in!"
Warning, trying to time the market is a dangerous fool's game.
4: Start building your own Lazy Portfolio today!
Build
a well-diversified portfolio, own the entire market with low-cost,
no-load index funds and develop a long-term financial plan and save
regularly.
A
bold move! You bet: Because back in 1999 over 100 mutual funds were
delivering 100%-plus returns. And their investors were expecting to
retire rich (and early!), thanks to those skyrocketing dot-com returns.
Meanwhile,
hundreds of technology companies went bankrupt, Nasdaq dropped 80%, and
stocks lost $8 trillion in a 30-month recession.
Conclusion: So what's your strategy?
You already know you have only four very uncomplicated alternative strategies for any bear recession.
And
the secret is out: You also know which of the four choices is yours ...
it's not really that complicated, admit it, decide, go with it ... do
what feels right, for you.
Extracts from article by Paul B. Farrell.
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