OPINION POLL OF SIRC elections

OPINION RESULTS OF SOUTHERN INDIA REGIONAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS 2015-16

We have analyzed and prepared a preliminary opinion on the results of the candidates contesting for the upcoming Southern India Regional Council (SIRC) election to be held on 4^th& 5^thday of December 2015.

Total number of candidates to be elected to the Southern India Regional Council (SIRC) is 13. Total number of candidates contesting for the election is 40 members. In the History of SIRC we are witnessing highest number of candidates contesting for the elections.

As per the new election rules, old members who have elected more than three terms are not eligible to contest for fourth term for the regional council election. As a result there are many new members are contesting for the election and they are testing their luck in this election we have predicted voting of approximately 28000 votes, as per the guide lines issued by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI), if we divide the total turn around of votes by 14, each of the candidate has to secure approximately 2000 votes for winning. The number may change based on the number of votes polling

LIST OF NUMBER OF CANDIDATES CONTESTING STATE WISE AND THE PROBABLE LIST OF WINNING CANDIDATES STATE WISE

ANALYSIS OF WINNING CANDIDATES ? STATEWISE

TAMILNADU - STATE

LIST OF CANDIDATES FROM - TAMILNADU

Total of 22 members are contesting from Tamilnadu state, we believe that that 5 candidates have the chances of winning and three candidates have the probable chances of winning based on the their Profile, Hard work and Percentage of votes polling and also considering the last minute changes in the election strategies, dynamics and other factors

WINNING CANDIDATES FROM TAMILNADU

1.ABHISHEK M

POSITIVE- Son of CA V Murali known person among the members

NEGATIVE- Father, His father is Vice Chairman of CMA and also he is the Central Council member. Many members have the opinion that there may be conflict of interest between CMA institute and ICAI institute

GENERAL ANALYSIS -He is son of Central Council member CA. V. Murali and his father already sent well designed broacher whatever he has prepared when he stood for the Regional Council elections, the same matter has been copied and pasted in the broucher which has been sent to almost30,000members. CA V Murali has already started campaigning for his son, hence the chances of winning of ABHISHEK M is certain as his father has good network with the members

2.DUNGAR CHAND U

POSITIVE- Present Chairman Madurai Branch and known to southern tamilnadu

NEGATIVE- Some of the members do not like his candidate in Madurai

GENERAL ANALYSIS -Since he is the only strong candidate contesting form Madurai and surrounding areas and he is also expected to get the votes from his community. We expect high chances of winning in this election due to more community votes in his favor. However he has to pull more votes from Chennai because votes may split in the rural Tamilnadu due to candidates from Salem, Tiruchirapalli and Coimbatore

3.GOPAL KRISHNA RAJU

POSITIVE- Present SIRC member and known to many members

NEGATIVE- Many members do not like his work style in SIRC

GENERAL ANALYSIS -He is the present member of SIRC and has good contact in overall Tamilnadu, certain places in Karnataka and Andrapradesh. His chances of winning is certain subject to expected vote pulling from Andharapradesh

4.JAYAPRAKASH V

POSITIVE - Well known member in Tamilnadu

NEGATVIE -He is from Salem and the total votes from Salem is approximately is 200 only

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is a good person and well known to many people in Tamilnadu and he has travelled entire Tamilnadu and portion of Kerala. He may pull votes from Erode, Coimbatore, Madurai and Chennai. He has not known much in other states. He may win depending upon the vote pulling from Chennai

5.JALAPATHI K

POSITIVE- Past Chairman of Coimbatore

NEGATIVE- Not familiar in Chennai and south Tamilnadu

GENERAL ANALYSIS - He is the past chairman of Coimbatore branch. He may pull votes from Coimbatore, Tirupur, Erode, Palakkad and Chennai. He is the one of the strong candidates in surrounding area of Coimbatore and he has already approached many people. Chances of winning are more if he pull vote share from Kerala and Chennai.

6.MARIMUTHU

POSITIVE- Spending huge amount to popularize himself and to get more votes

NEGATIVE- Not Familiar in other states

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He has already started contacting people and spending money to popularize him and he has worked as part of the SIRC conference committee and established network with many members. He is popular among the members, therefore chances of winning is more subject to pulling votes from districts of Tamilnadu.

7.UMAMAHESWARA RAO O K

POSITIVE- He has contacts with members in Andrapradesh

NEGATIVE- Not much popular in other districts of Tamilnadu

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is already started working and establishing contacts in Andrapradesh and he has contacts with many members in Chennai and he is from Telugu background. Many of the members from Telugu background in Chennai may vote from him. He may win subject to more votes pulling in Andrapradesh and Telangana

PROBABLE WINNING CANDIDATES FROM TAMILNADU

1.REVATHI S RAGHUNATHAN

She has already contested last time and secured approximately 500 votes. This time she is the only strong lady candidate to contest for the election. Her winning is dependent upon how she secures the votes from women members and from Chennai members

2.ROBERT KENNEDY M

He is the present chairman of the Coimbatore branch and he has established contacts with surrounding branch members. He may win depending upon securing first preference votes from Jalapathy and getting second preference votes from KANDASAMY R

KARNATAKA - STATE

There are 6 members contesting from Karnataka, however there is no heated competition among the candidates. List of candidates contesting for the SIRC election from Karnataka are as follows

WINNING CANDIDATES FROM KARNATAKA

1.COTHA SRINIVAS

POSITIVE- Present SIRC member and past SIRC secretary

NEGATIVE- Over confidence of his winning in this Election

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is already existing members of SIRC and has good contacts across Karnataka state. He is the only senior member contesting election for 3^rdTime and he has created his own vote bank of his community. Winning is confirmed.

2.BABU K THEVAR

POSITIVE- Past Chairman of Bangalore Branch and well known person among the members in Bangalore

NEGATIVE- Less spending for publicity

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is the immediate popular past chairman of Bangalore branch. During his tenure he has organized many conferences in a unique way including international conference. He is also popular among young members. He is also expected to pull votes from Tamilnadu and part of Andrapradesh. Hence there is no competition in Karnataka, winning is confirmed

PROBABLE WINNING CANDIDATES FROM KARNATAKA

1.PANNA RAJ S

He is from mofussil area of Karnataka, he has created mofussil wave to secure vote for him, however the entire Karnataka mofussil area have approximately 800 votes. Mangalore, Udupi and Mysore are not a mofussil area, he is expected to secure approximately 500 votes from mofussil area. Getting votes from CA Dilip and other eliminating candidates, there are chances of his winning in this election. Some of the Bangalore members are against to him for separating members from mofussil and Bangalore instead of entire Karnataka, we think this may be a negative for him

2.DILIP KUMAR TM

He the present president of Karnataka State Chartered Accountants Association (KSCAA) and well know person across Karnataka and Bangalore. His winning is dependent on how he pulls the votes from mofussil area of Karnataka. Contesting for the SIRC election being a president of Karnataka State Chartered Accountant Association (KSCAA) has been questioned by many members. We think this may be negative for him.

KERALA STATE

Three members are contesting from Kerala, only limited votes available in Kerala. Expected a heated competition among the candidates.

WINNING CANDIDATES FROM KERALA

1.JOMON K GEORGE

POSITIVE- Present SIRC member and well known among Kerala members

NEGATIVE -Not known in other states

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is the present SIRC member and well known among Malayali members present across South India. He also addressed many places, he may pull maximum votes in Kerala and surrounding areas. So chances of winning is Certain.

2.SONY C L

POSITIVE- He was past chairman of Thrissur Branch and Established wide contacts

NEGATIVE- Not much known in other states

GENERAL ANALYSIS- He is also well known person among Kerala members, he may pull second preference from Jomon K George and First Preference from many members including his contacts in Bangalore, Coimbatore and Chennai. After elimination of other Kerala members and Coimbatore members winning for him is not difficult

ANDRAPRADESH AND TELANGANA STATES

This election is happening after separation of Andrapradesh in to Telangana and Andrapradesh states. Most of the members present in Hyderabad belongs to Andrapradesh and Telangana and how the voting pattern happens is unpredictable. However we can predict that few of the member s may win without much difficult. Due to above mentioned voting conflict we are unable to analyze the results of individual members. However we may predict following members as the winning candidates and probable winning candidates. The prediction may not be 100% accurate